Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1435 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1435 CHS 06:45 → DFW 08:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2691 CHS 19:11 → DFW 21:02 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1435 American Flight history →	CHS 06:45	DFW 08:39	10%	4%	1.1%	92%
AA 2158 American	CHS 13:09	DFW 15:01	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 2166 American Flight history →	CHS 15:37	DFW 17:31	25%	8%	0.9%	76%
AA 2691 American	CHS 19:11	DFW 21:02	31%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON