Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1289 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 1289 CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 2693 CHS 15:34 → EWR 17:37 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1289 United Flight history →	CHS 06:00	EWR 07:59	6%	3%	1.7%	91%
UA 674 United Flight history →	CHS 11:13	EWR 13:15	18%	7%	1.3%	89%
UA 3416 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 19:31	EWR 21:45	33%	10%	2.9%	84%worse than usual
UA 2693 United Flight history →	CHS 15:34	EWR 17:37	41%	18%	1.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON