Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1131 at 19:25, 35%.

Nonstops that day


B6 1131 JetBlue Flight history →	CHS 19:25	FLL 21:16	35%	14%	1.3%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → FLL 09:59DL 1094	4h 49m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 09:06 → FLL 11:03DL 1271	4h 48m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CHS 07:44 → ATL 09:03DL 789	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512	4h 39m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	CHS 07:00 → LGA 09:05DL 5093 · flown by Endeavor	1h 50m New York	LGA 10:55 → FLL 13:54DL 1181	6h 54m	96%	83%
United Details →	CHS 06:30 → ORD 08:04UA 2333	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 10:59 → FLL 15:13UA 279	8h 43m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:25 → JFK 08:28DL 5445 · flown by Endeavor	2h 46m New York	JFK 11:14 → FLL 14:24DL 305	7h 59m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	CHS 09:32 → ATL 10:56DL 5475 · flown by Endeavor	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341	4h 55m	96%	78%
United Details →	CHS 07:02 → EWR 09:13UA 1289	2h 40m Newark	EWR 11:53 → FLL 14:49UA 2759	7h 47m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON