Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3073 at 05:36, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3073 Southwest	CHS 05:36	HOU 07:07	4%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	5h 35m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 55m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 04m	99%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CHS 15:37 → DFW 17:31AA 2166	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:31 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 11m	75%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON