Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3413 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day YX 3413 CHS 06:01 → IAD 07:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1019 CHS 15:00 → IAD 16:54 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3413 Republic	CHS 06:01	IAD 07:59	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1858 United Flight history →	CHS 10:00	IAD 11:37	8%	3%	0.6%	93%
YX 3418 Republic	CHS 19:54	IAD 21:51	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 1019 United	CHS 15:00	IAD 16:54	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 4322 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 19:46	IAD 21:30	41%	28%	8.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON