tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 1155 at 06:57, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1155 United CHS 06:57 IAH 08:36 7% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 6329 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record CHS 17:00 IAH 18:55 18% 9% 0.0% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 7h 04m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → CHS 06:45 → DFW 08:39AA 1435 1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:28 → IAH 11:48AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 6h 03m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → CHS 09:41 → ATL 11:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 4h 52m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33UA 2333 1h 18m Chicago ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535 6h 51m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → CHS 08:48 → CLT 10:15AA 5817 · flown by Piedmont 2h 27m Charlotte CLT 12:42 → IAH 14:20AA 398 6h 32m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → CHS 10:00 → IAD 11:37UA 1858 1h 13m Dulles IAD 12:50 → IAH 15:11UA 1535 6h 11m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → IAH 15:52DL 1223 5h 34m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → CHS 14:27 → ATL 15:43DL 2179 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 19:01 → IAH 20:08DL 2327 6h 41m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CHS 13:00 → DTW 15:11DL 5431 · flown by Endeavor 49m Detroit DTW 16:00 → IAH 17:53DL 1718 5h 53m 69% 57%
JetBlueDetails → CHS 18:30 → FLL 20:10B6 1131 50m Fort Lauderdale FLL 21:00 → IAH 23:02B6 2779 5h 32m 67% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON