Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1194 at 19:16, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1194 Southwest	CHS 19:16	MDW 20:43	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063	5h 55m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 41m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	5h 57m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CHS 07:10 → DTW 09:19DL 5092 · flown by Endeavor	3h 06m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	6h 36m	92%	71%
Delta Details →	CHS 13:00 → DTW 15:11DL 5431 · flown by Endeavor	2h 56m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 29m	96%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON