Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1763 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1763 American Flight history →	CHS 05:54	MIA 07:45	7%	3%	1.1%	96%
MQ 3867 Envoy	CHS 18:33	MIA 20:18	37%	7%	1.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 07:30 → MIA 09:30DL 2836	4h 20m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 42m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CHS 08:20 → ATL 09:34DL 789	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	4h 42m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	CHS 17:00 → ATL 18:19DL 1381	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	6h 39m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	CHS 09:41 → ATL 11:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323	5h 50m	99%	77%
American Details →	CHS 08:48 → CLT 10:15AA 5817 · flown by Piedmont	3h 14m Charlotte	CLT 13:29 → MIA 15:36AA 1198	6h 48m	100%	77%
American Details →	CHS 08:16 → CLT 09:25AA 3298	1h 37m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	4h 55m	91%	77%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:00 → JFK 08:01DL 5445 · flown by Endeavor	3h 07m New York	JFK 11:08 → MIA 14:22DL 1514	8h 22m	97%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON