Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2333 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2333 CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2154 CHS 14:18 → ORD 15:51 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2333 United Flight history →	CHS 06:00	ORD 07:33	5%	2%	1.1%	87%
AA 3187 American	CHS 07:17	ORD 08:56	11%	4%	1.4%	no record
UA 2821 United	CHS 11:27	ORD 13:02	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 5729 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHS 19:02	ORD 20:34	20%	8%	1.6%	57%
MQ 3868 Envoy	CHS 19:55	ORD 21:25	20%	6%	2.5%	no record
UA 2680 United	CHS 16:58	ORD 18:33	25%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 2154 American	CHS 14:18	ORD 15:51	25%	7%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON