Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1182 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1182 CHS 07:17 → PHL 09:24 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 499 CHS 18:39 → PHL 20:46 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1182 American	CHS 07:17	PHL 09:24	11%	4%	1.4%	no record
AA 1526 American Flight history →	CHS 11:22	PHL 13:31	16%	5%	0.8%	88%
AA 2447 American Flight history →	CHS 13:09	PHL 15:04	24%	7%	0.9%	75%
AA 499 American	CHS 18:39	PHL 20:46	27%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON