Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 487 at 13:26, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 487 Southwest	CHS 13:26	STL 14:45	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 07:43 → STL 08:19DL 1571	4h 09m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	4h 28m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	CHS 08:20 → ATL 09:34DL 789	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	4h 57m	98%	86%
United Details →	CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33UA 2333	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 11:01 → STL 12:35UA 1044	7h 35m	99%	85%
American Details →	CHS 08:48 → CLT 10:15AA 5817 · flown by Piedmont	1h 50m Charlotte	CLT 12:05 → STL 13:04AA 3096	5h 16m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543	5h 48m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CHS 14:27 → ATL 15:43DL 2179	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833	6h 38m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	CHS 13:05 → ATL 14:20DL 3107	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	5h 48m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CHS 15:42 → LGA 17:48DL 1404	1h 03m New York	LGA 18:51 → STL 20:46DL 4926 · flown by Endeavor	6h 05m	64%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON