Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 1039 at 08:01, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1039 American Flight history →	CID 08:01	CLT 11:15	16%	5%	1.3%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CID 05:50 → ATL 08:52DL 2518	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 41m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	CID 06:46 → MSP 08:05DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	2h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819	6h 11m	94%	85%
American Details →	CID 05:04 → ORD 06:17AA 3430 · flown by Envoy	2h 43m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → CLT 11:59AA 2080	5h 55m	98%	81%
American Details →	CID 04:57 → DFW 07:03AA 3564 · flown by Envoy	2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:59 → CLT 13:41AA 2493	7h 44m	96%	80%
American Details →	CID 12:48 → DFW 14:58AA 4297 · flown by Envoy	2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:54 → CLT 21:44AA 1703	7h 56m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	CID 12:09 → MSP 13:26DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	5h 40m	82%	72%
American Details →	CID 07:50 → PHX 09:16AA 4983 · flown by SkyWest	48m Phoenix	PHX 10:04 → CLT 17:24AA 665	8h 34m	85%	70%
United Details →	CID 15:16 → DEN 16:30UA 514	1h 15m Denver	DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616	6h 52m	87%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON