Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 3345 at 13:44, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3345 Envoy	CID 13:44	DCA 17:09	21%	6%	1.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CID 05:04 → ORD 06:17AA 3430 · flown by Envoy	2h 48m Chicago	ORD 09:05 → DCA 12:17AA 523	6h 13m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CID 05:50 → ATL 08:52DL 2518	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	5h 57m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	CID 06:46 → MSP 08:05DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	2h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 02m	93%	83%
American Details →	CID 04:57 → DFW 07:03AA 3564 · flown by Envoy	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:33 → DCA 13:43AA 2399	7h 46m	96%	81%
United Details →	CID 10:57 → ORD 12:29UA 4595 · flown by GoJet	2h 31m Chicago	ORD 15:00 → DCA 18:12UA 1941	6h 15m	96%	74%
American Details →	CID 12:48 → DFW 14:58AA 4297 · flown by Envoy	3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752	9h 11m	100%	74%
American Details →	CID 08:01 → CLT 11:15AA 1039	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839	7h 12m	94%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CID 12:09 → MSP 13:26DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	5h 00m	70%	58%
Delta Details →	CID 16:24 → MSP 17:39DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	56m Minneapolis	MSP 18:35 → DCA 22:02DL 2962	4h 38m	54%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON