Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3430 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3430 CID 05:04 → ORD 06:17 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 5615 CID 18:50 → ORD 20:09 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3430 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 05:04	ORD 06:17	13%	5%	2.7%	91%
UA 1796 United	CID 06:30	ORD 07:49	14%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 2401 United	CID 07:55	ORD 09:15	16%	5%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3732 Envoy	CID 11:52	ORD 13:05	22%	5%	4.1%	no record
OO 6285 SkyWest	CID 13:41	ORD 14:59	24%	7%	4.1%	no record
OO 4777 SkyWest	CID 15:41	ORD 17:09	24%	9%	3.8%	no record
OO 5615 SkyWest	CID 18:50	ORD 20:09	30%	11%	2.5%	no record
UA 4595 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CID 10:57	ORD 12:29	19%	7%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON