Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5684 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 5684 CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 640 CLE 17:58 → BOS 19:54 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5684 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 06:05	BOS 08:07	6%	2%	1.0%	92%
DL 5674 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 11:15	BOS 13:14	15%	5%	0.7%	90%
B6 1340 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 09:16	BOS 11:14	17%	8%	0.9%	88%
B6 2040 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 11:30	BOS 13:28	20%	10%	0.9%	81%
DL 5641 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 17:50	BOS 19:58	24%	10%	1.2%	71%
B6 640 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 17:58	BOS 19:54	35%	20%	1.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON