Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2710 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2710 CLE 06:07 → CLT 07:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1562 CLE 16:32 → CLT 18:15 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2710 American	CLE 06:07	CLT 07:49	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
AA 1446 American	CLE 09:34	CLT 11:17	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 568 American	CLE 13:15	CLT 14:59	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
OH 5617 PSA	CLE 14:36	CLT 16:16	20%	6%	2.0%	no record
AA 1562 American Flight history →	CLE 16:32	CLT 18:15	20%	5%	1.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON