Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5210 at 05:29 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 5210 CLE 05:29 → DCA 06:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest MQ 3915 CLE 16:43 → DCA 18:14 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5210 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 05:29	DCA 06:57	8%	4%	1.9%	95%
AA 5413 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 09:43	DCA 11:13	15%	6%	2.2%	80%
AA 5535 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 13:43	DCA 15:11	26%	8%	1.8%	69%
OH 5091 PSA	CLE 20:38	DCA 22:13	26%	12%	2.1%	no record
MQ 3915 Envoy	CLE 16:43	DCA 18:14	28%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON