Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1590 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1590 CLE 05:57 → DFW 07:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1230 CLE 19:36 → DFW 21:32 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1590 American Flight history →	CLE 05:57	DFW 07:53	8%	3%	0.9%	84%
AA 2331 American Flight history →	CLE 07:09	DFW 09:08	11%	3%	0.9%	79%
AA 1172 American Flight history →	CLE 11:46	DFW 13:42	14%	5%	0.8%	79%
AA 1554 American Flight history →	CLE 15:21	DFW 17:17	21%	8%	1.0%	76%
AA 1230 American	CLE 19:36	DFW 21:32	27%	10%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON