Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5432 CLE 06:30 → DTW 07:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 5353 CLE 19:41 → DTW 20:37 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5432 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CLE 06:30	DTW 07:26	7%	3%	0.7%	88%
9E 5327 Endeavor	CLE 10:25	DTW 11:21	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3926 SkyWest	CLE 08:30	DTW 09:27	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 5359 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CLE 14:18	DTW 15:14	9%	4%	0.6%	83%
9E 5409 Endeavor	CLE 16:01	DTW 16:57	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 5353 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	CLE 19:41	DTW 20:37	15%	5%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON