Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 601 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 601 CLE 07:15 → EWR 08:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1274 CLE 19:20 → EWR 20:58 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 601 United Flight history →	CLE 07:15	EWR 08:47	8%	3%	1.4%	94%
UA 2468 United Flight history →	CLE 08:19	EWR 09:52	10%	4%	1.2%	92%
UA 2782 United	CLE 12:53	EWR 14:31	26%	12%	1.0%	no record
YX 3658 Republic	CLE 17:18	EWR 19:19	35%	12%	2.9%	no record
UA 1892 United Flight history →	CLE 15:19	EWR 17:00	36%	14%	1.1%	77%worse than usual
UA 1274 United	CLE 19:20	EWR 20:58	41%	15%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON