tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 08:55, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1219 Southwest CLE 10:41 LAS 12:17 11% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 765 United CLE 10:00 LAS 11:36 12% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 2h 09m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 7h 31m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777 6h 56m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:04 → IAH 08:03UA 1645 3h 52m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 10h 09m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 38m Dulles IAD 08:53 → LAS 10:54UA 1323 7h 54m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 57m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → CLE 08:55 → DEN 10:10UA 690 3h 18m Denver DEN 13:28 → LAS 14:28UA 493 8h 33m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549 9h 13m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490 3h 16m Chicago ORD 10:52 → LAS 12:46UA 1803 8h 46m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:26 → DTW 11:27DL 5192 · flown by Endeavor 48m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421 6h 02m 74% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON