Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2636 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2636 CLE 08:00 → MCO 10:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 1206 CLE 17:26 → MCO 19:50 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2636 United Flight history →	CLE 08:00	MCO 10:27	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
F9 2668 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 06:00	MCO 08:31	11%	3%	1.0%	83%
UA 1488 United Flight history →	CLE 12:16	MCO 14:43	13%	5%	0.7%	92%
F9 3916 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 14:48	MCO 17:24	22%	9%	2.6%	72%
F9 1056 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 18:50	MCO 21:26	26%	9%	2.1%	86%worse than usual
WN 1206 Southwest	CLE 17:26	MCO 19:50	30%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON