Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1207 Southwest	CLE 08:21	MDW 08:49	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1209 Southwest	CLE 14:41	MDW 15:08	12%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	5h 51m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063	5h 30m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	7h 00m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CLE 10:26 → DTW 11:27DL 5192 · flown by Endeavor	58m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	3h 20m	82%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON