Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2887 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2887 American Flight history →	CLE 06:01	MIA 09:00	10%	3%	1.0%	96%
F9 2474 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 20:04	MIA 23:04	31%	16%	2.0%	87%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 22m	98%	86%
United Details →	CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252	1h 30m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 35m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → MIA 13:37DL 793	7h 37m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 57m	99%	84%
United Details →	CLE 06:04 → IAH 08:03UA 1645	3h 57m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	9h 43m	100%	80%
American Details →	CLE 05:29 → DCA 06:57AA 5210 · flown by PSA	2h 59m Washington	DCA 09:56 → MIA 12:46AA 401	7h 17m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323	7h 26m	100%	78%
United Details →	CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 10:33 → MIA 14:57UA 1620	7h 57m	99%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CLE 17:15 → JFK 19:09DL 4975 · flown by Endeavor	46m New York	JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428	6h 22m	60%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON