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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 5h 55m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047 5h 12m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CLE 12:37 → ATL 14:29DL 2978 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093 6h 30m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:53 → PHL 07:38AA 3302 1h 17m Philadelphia PHL 08:55 → MYR 10:54AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont 5h 01m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → CLE 10:52 → PHL 12:28AA 5847 · flown by Piedmont 3h 51m Philadelphia PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont 7h 35m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 00m Dulles IAD 08:15 → MYR 09:59UA 4236 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 59m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → CLE 16:32 → CLT 18:15AA 1562 1h 48m Charlotte CLT 20:03 → MYR 21:13AA 1085 4h 41m 90% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON