Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2112 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 2112 CLE 05:25 → ORD 06:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1673 CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2112 United	CLE 05:25	ORD 06:09	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3841 Envoy	CLE 05:33	ORD 06:04	10%	4%	3.0%	no record
UA 490 United Flight history →	CLE 07:00	ORD 07:36	10%	2%	0.9%	86%
UA 656 United Flight history →	CLE 09:00	ORD 09:35	12%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 6363 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 09:44	ORD 10:30	14%	5%	1.9%	76%
UA 472 United	CLE 10:55	ORD 11:39	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 6319 SkyWest	CLE 15:09	ORD 15:53	22%	8%	2.1%	no record
OO 4689 SkyWest	CLE 12:30	ORD 13:02	23%	6%	1.9%	no record
UA 2443 United Flight history →	CLE 14:05	ORD 14:41	24%	8%	0.8%	68%
OO 4932 SkyWest	CLE 13:07	ORD 13:37	24%	7%	2.0%	no record
MQ 3912 Envoy	CLE 20:59	ORD 21:31	26%	7%	3.1%	no record
OO 4748 SkyWest	CLE 19:54	ORD 20:34	28%	8%	2.7%	no record
UA 2315 United Flight history →	CLE 16:23	ORD 16:57	29%	8%	0.9%	64%
OO 4904 SkyWest	CLE 17:25	ORD 18:08	32%	10%	2.7%	no record
UA 1673 United Flight history →	CLE 18:05	ORD 18:44	32%	10%	1.0%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON