tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1225 Southwest CLE 18:41 PHX 20:03 24% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 2h 24m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 7h 43m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 36m Dulles IAD 08:51 → PHX 10:40UA 709 7h 40m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:28 → SLC 09:26DL 2207 2h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 7h 44m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:57 → DFW 07:53AA 1590 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:20 → PHX 11:06AA 2905 8h 09m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 28m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:04 → IAH 08:03UA 1645 1h 37m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 7h 30m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 13m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26UA 2246 3h 09m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 8h 25m 100% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CLE 15:19 → EWR 17:00UA 1892 1h 23m Newark EWR 18:23 → PHX 20:50UA 676 8h 31m 71% 45%
AmericanDetails → CLE 15:03 → PHL 16:43AA 5861 · flown by Piedmont 47m Philadelphia PHL 17:30 → PHX 19:37AA 1984 7h 34m 55% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON