Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:15, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Fort Myers on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


F9 1544 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 17:41	RSW 20:41	25%	10%	2.7%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252	1h 00m Dulles	IAD 08:15 → RSW 10:53UA 1406	4h 53m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	6h 36m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196	6h 30m	100%	86%
United Details →	CLE 06:04 → IAH 08:03UA 1645	1h 27m Houston	IAH 09:30 → RSW 13:14UA 494	7h 10m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400	7h 27m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	6h 29m	99%	84%
United Details →	CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → RSW 14:48UA 2137	7h 48m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	CLE 14:27 → ATL 16:17DL 775	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 19:28 → RSW 21:13DL 1736	6h 46m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON