Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via O'Hare, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 274 Alaska Flight history →	CLE 07:03	SEA 09:11	17%	3%	0.8%	73%
AS 216 Alaska Flight history →	CLE 17:32	SEA 19:41	27%	7%	0.9%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	9h 45m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 38m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 59m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	9h 34m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CLE 07:28 → SLC 09:26DL 2207	3h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	10h 07m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	CLE 12:37 → ATL 14:29DL 2978	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	9h 28m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07DL 5684 · flown by Republic	3h 22m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332	11h 45m	100%	81%
United Details →	CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26UA 2246	1h 47m Denver	DEN 14:13 → SEA 16:22UA 2833	8h 12m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLE 15:03 → PHL 16:43AA 5861 · flown by Piedmont	1h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 17:46 → SEA 20:42AA 1037	8h 39m	69%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON