tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1250 United CLE 09:00 SFO 11:13 10% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 2817 United CLE 19:20 SFO 21:46 19% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 2h 30m Dulles IAD 09:45 → SFO 12:29UA 1773 9h 29m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693 7h 45m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 45m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 3h 56m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 99% 81%
JetBlueDetails → CLE 06:25 → JFK 08:02B6 2769 2h 28m New York JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215 10h 43m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → CLE 15:11 → IAH 17:25UA 1545 2h 24m Houston IAH 19:49 → SFO 22:12UA 1202 10h 01m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → CLE 12:37 → ATL 14:29DL 2978 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495 10h 20m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → CLE 11:10 → DEN 12:26UA 2246 3h 21m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 9h 20m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:26 → DTW 11:27DL 5192 · flown by Endeavor 48m Detroit DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469 6h 51m 74% 58%
UnitedDetails → CLE 09:00 → ORD 09:35UA 656 50m Chicago ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 7h 14m 64% 49%
UnitedDetails → CLE 15:19 → EWR 17:00UA 1892 1h 00m Newark EWR 18:00 → SFO 21:28UA 1844 9h 09m 64% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON