tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1218 Southwest CLE 06:59 STL 07:44 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 4976 Southwest CLE 16:51 STL 17:36 11% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → STL 10:43DL 1289 5h 43m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 08m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 12m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490 3h 25m Chicago ORD 11:01 → STL 12:35UA 1044 6h 35m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:15 → ATL 11:59DL 1500 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543 6h 51m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → CLE 12:37 → ATL 14:29DL 2978 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 6h 16m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLE 14:27 → ATL 16:17DL 775 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833 6h 38m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → CLE 16:23 → ORD 16:57UA 2315 3h 20m Chicago ORD 20:17 → STL 21:44UA 1625 6h 21m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CLE 16:23 → ORD 16:57UA 2315 58m Chicago ORD 17:55 → STL 19:23UA 4412 · flown by GoJet 4h 00m 68% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON