Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: F9 3679 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–28%.

Safest bet that day F9 3679 CLE 06:30 → TPA 09:02 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 1831 CLE 18:35 → TPA 21:23 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 3679 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 06:30	TPA 09:02	11%	3%	0.9%	86%
F9 2683 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 10:12	TPA 13:01	15%	5%	0.9%	80%
F9 1831 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 18:35	TPA 21:23	28%	10%	1.2%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON