Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 3186 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 3186 CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest OH 5269 CLT 19:34 → ATL 20:51 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3186 Delta Flight history →	CLT 05:30	ATL 06:41	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 1656 Delta	CLT 06:53	ATL 08:08	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1709 Delta	CLT 09:39	ATL 10:54	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3156 Delta Flight history →	CLT 08:01	ATL 09:15	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2157 Delta Flight history →	CLT 14:22	ATL 15:37	10%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 3190 Delta Flight history →	CLT 12:19	ATL 13:32	10%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 5552 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 10:31	ATL 11:48	11%	3%	0.8%	100%worse than usual
DL 1724 Delta	CLT 17:00	ATL 18:16	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1729 Delta	CLT 19:39	ATL 20:54	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
OH 5207 PSA	CLT 08:26	ATL 09:42	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 5175 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 14:19	ATL 15:36	17%	4%	0.8%	73%
AA 5067 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:21	ATL 18:38	20%	5%	0.9%	79%
OH 5269 PSA	CLT 19:34	ATL 20:51	21%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON