Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OH 5470 at 15:31, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5470 PSA	CLT 15:31	ATW 16:44	22%	6%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	2h 18m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → ATW 10:29DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	5h 29m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 09:32 → ATW 10:47DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	5h 27m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 13:17 → DTW 15:00DL 2684	2h 24m Detroit	DTW 17:24 → ATW 17:50DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest	5h 33m	98%	78%
United Details →	CLT 06:45 → ORD 08:01UA 1304	2h 24m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → ATW 11:43UA 4460 · flown by GoJet	5h 58m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	CLT 09:42 → DTW 11:30DL 1639	1h 28m Detroit	DTW 12:58 → ATW 13:25DL 4696 · flown by Endeavor	4h 43m	96%	75%
United Details →	CLT 15:02 → ORD 16:20UA 3491 · flown by Republic	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 18:17 → ATW 19:32UA 5987 · flown by SkyWest	5h 30m	100%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON