Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 818 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 818 CLT 08:26 → AUS 10:17 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1905 CLT 19:01 → AUS 20:57 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 818 American Flight history →	CLT 08:26	AUS 10:17	11%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 1052 American	CLT 12:16	AUS 14:07	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3070 American	CLT 14:12	AUS 16:03	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1905 American Flight history →	CLT 19:01	AUS 20:57	29%	8%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON