Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1874 American	CLT 10:34	BGR 13:20	10%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 1411 American Flight history →	CLT 14:04	BGR 16:48	14%	3%	1.0%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 05:54 → PHL 07:48AA 1838	1h 07m Philadelphia	PHL 08:55 → BGR 10:51AA 6123 · flown by Piedmont	4h 57m	94%	84%
American Details →	CLT 07:11 → LGA 09:10AA 2036	2h 57m New York	LGA 12:07 → BGR 13:50AA 4488 · flown by Republic	6h 39m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CLT 10:01 → JFK 11:59DL 5052 · flown by Endeavor	1h 50m New York	JFK 13:49 → BGR 15:42DL 5151 · flown by Endeavor	5h 41m	93%	73%
American Details →	CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498	1h 16m Philadelphia	PHL 13:59 → BGR 15:48AA 2142	4h 48m	91%	72%
Delta Details →	CLT 09:36 → LGA 11:32DL 5068 · flown by Endeavor	3h 05m New York	LGA 14:37 → BGR 16:21DL 5010 · flown by Endeavor	6h 44m	96%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CLT 11:50 → LGA 13:50DL 5051 · flown by Endeavor	47m New York	LGA 14:37 → BGR 16:21DL 5010 · flown by Endeavor	4h 30m	59%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON