Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5043 CLT 08:59 → BHM 09:23 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest OO 6350 CLT 16:12 → BHM 16:39 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5043 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 08:59	BHM 09:23	10%	3%	0.8%	100%
OO 6270 SkyWest	CLT 11:29	BHM 11:56	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
OH 5448 PSA	CLT 14:37	BHM 15:01	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 5205 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 19:59	BHM 20:23	14%	5%	1.0%	86%
OO 6350 SkyWest	CLT 16:12	BHM 16:39	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON