Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1220 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 1220 CLT 06:51 → BNA 07:18 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 519 CLT 16:55 → BNA 17:27 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1220 Southwest	CLT 06:51	BNA 07:18	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 1295 American	CLT 10:35	BNA 11:07	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2694 Southwest	CLT 11:16	BNA 11:39	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2409 American	CLT 12:06	BNA 12:38	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 538 American	CLT 13:06	BNA 13:39	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 526 American Flight history →	CLT 20:41	BNA 21:14	18%	7%	0.7%	71%
AA 519 American Flight history →	CLT 16:55	BNA 17:27	21%	6%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON