Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5648 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 5648 CLT 06:05 → BOS 08:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1155 CLT 16:16 → BOS 18:39 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5648 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 06:05	BOS 08:31	5%	2%	0.9%	92%
AA 1151 American	CLT 08:27	BOS 10:51	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 5626 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 09:40	BOS 12:06	12%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 2263 American	CLT 10:21	BOS 12:46	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1843 American Flight history →	CLT 20:06	BOS 22:31	19%	9%	0.8%	71%
DL 5630 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 13:20	BOS 15:56	20%	8%	0.7%	73%
AA 1140 American	CLT 12:39	BOS 15:02	20%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 5837 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:34	BOS 20:15	23%	9%	1.0%	64%
AA 901 American Flight history →	CLT 14:23	BOS 16:46	25%	11%	0.7%	82%
AA 2595 American Flight history →	CLT 18:34	BOS 20:59	25%	11%	0.8%	59%
AA 1155 American	CLT 16:16	BOS 18:39	27%	11%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON