Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2958 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2958 CLT 08:26 → BWI 10:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 159 CLT 20:06 → BWI 21:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2958 Southwest	CLT 08:26	BWI 10:05	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1216 American	CLT 08:14	BWI 09:59	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2733 American Flight history →	CLT 12:27	BWI 14:10	12%	4%	0.8%	87%
F9 3076 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 11:07	BWI 12:53	15%	6%	1.3%	76%
WN 1223 Southwest	CLT 13:36	BWI 15:15	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3121 American	CLT 16:11	BWI 17:54	19%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2855 American Flight history →	CLT 18:16	BWI 19:56	21%	8%	0.7%	76%
AA 1318 American Flight history →	CLT 19:55	BWI 21:39	21%	8%	0.7%	74%
WN 159 Southwest	CLT 20:06	BWI 21:45	22%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON