tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2415 American CLT 09:42 BZN 12:23 8% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 2h 59m Minneapolis MSP 10:58 → BZN 12:31DL 2946 8h 11m 99% 93%
UnitedDetails → CLT 06:45 → ORD 08:01UA 1304 1h 09m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 6h 59m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:56 → BZN 10:59AA 952 7h 14m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 7h 10m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 3h 17m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 8h 53m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843 1h 23m Chicago ORD 10:25 → BZN 13:06AA 1080 7h 20m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:26 → DFW 09:14AA 1005 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → BZN 15:16AA 947 9h 50m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → CLT 13:06 → ORD 14:30UA 3442 · flown by Republic 2h 17m Chicago ORD 16:47 → BZN 19:05UA 1920 7h 59m 95% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON