Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: PT 5962 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–27%.

Safest bet that day PT 5962 CLT 08:20 → CHA 09:34 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5964 CLT 17:27 → CHA 18:42 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5962 Piedmont	CLT 08:20	CHA 09:34	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 6004 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CLT 10:57	CHA 12:11	19%	3%	0.8%	91%
PT 5826 Piedmont	CLT 12:39	CHA 13:53	22%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5130 PSA	CLT 14:19	CHA 15:30	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
PT 5875 Piedmont	CLT 19:19	CHA 20:34	26%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 5950 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CLT 15:58	CHA 17:13	26%	6%	0.9%	84%worse than usual
AA 5964 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	CLT 17:27	CHA 18:42	27%	8%	0.9%	97%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON