Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1731 CLT 08:51 → CHS 10:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 3117 CLT 15:44 → CHS 16:55 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1731 American Flight history →	CLT 08:51	CHS 10:09	11%	3%	0.8%	81%
OH 5171 PSA	CLT 10:38	CHS 11:44	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 5222 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 12:19	CHS 13:25	15%	5%	1.0%	89%
AA 3064 American Flight history →	CLT 20:12	CHS 21:28	17%	6%	0.9%	73%
AA 1570 American	CLT 18:07	CHS 19:18	19%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 3117 American Flight history →	CLT 15:44	CHS 16:55	19%	6%	0.8%	59%
AA 5817 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:10	CHS 08:23	13%	0%	0.0%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON