Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 3127 at 18:15, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3127 American	CLT 18:15	CID 19:41	23%	9%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	2h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 10:38 → CID 11:51DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	6h 31m	99%	91%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 28m Denver	DEN 13:55 → CID 17:01UA 5677 · flown by SkyWest	9h 21m	99%	83%
American Details →	CLT 11:26 → DFW 13:16AA 2747	1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:05 → CID 17:10AA 4318 · flown by Envoy	6h 44m	95%	82%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → CID 20:41AA 3798 · flown by Envoy	6h 37m	95%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON