Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 430 at 09:04 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 430 CLT 09:04 → CVG 10:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest AA 2021 CLT 18:01 → CVG 19:31 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 430 American Flight history →	CLT 09:04	CVG 10:33	11%	3%	0.9%	61%
AA 1533 American	CLT 11:00	CVG 12:29	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 5293 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:09	CVG 17:31	23%	6%	1.2%	75%
AA 2021 American Flight history →	CLT 18:01	CVG 19:31	27%	7%	0.8%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON