Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3043 at 09:28 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3043 CLT 09:28 → DCA 11:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2002 CLT 16:38 → DCA 18:12 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3043 American	CLT 09:28	DCA 11:13	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 1581 American	CLT 07:42	DCA 09:17	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
OH 5539 PSA	CLT 11:35	DCA 13:14	17%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2432 American	CLT 20:37	DCA 22:24	19%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 2839 American Flight history →	CLT 14:34	DCA 16:13	26%	8%	0.9%	66%
AA 527 American Flight history →	CLT 19:01	DCA 20:35	30%	11%	0.9%	57%
AA 2002 American	CLT 16:38	DCA 18:12	30%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON