Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1963 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1963 CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3156 CLT 17:26 → DEN 19:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1963 United Flight history →	CLT 08:40	DEN 10:27	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 1662 American Flight history →	CLT 10:51	DEN 12:26	13%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 1328 American Flight history →	CLT 08:26	DEN 10:03	14%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 696 American	CLT 13:05	DEN 14:40	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 792 United	CLT 16:21	DEN 17:46	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 1361 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 19:56	DEN 21:32	21%	6%	0.9%	74%
AA 3156 American Flight history →	CLT 17:26	DEN 19:00	25%	6%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON