Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2962 at 10:33 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2962 American Flight history →	CLT 10:33	DSM 12:07	10%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 3020 American Flight history →	CLT 18:23	DSM 19:55	21%	8%	0.8%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704	6h 15m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	6h 33m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	6h 33m	100%	88%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 03m Denver	DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:11UA 1311	8h 31m	99%	85%
American Details →	CLT 05:54 → PHL 07:48AA 1838	2h 51m Philadelphia	PHL 10:39 → DSM 12:29AA 5478 · flown by PSA	7h 35m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	1h 03m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → DSM 09:44DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	4h 44m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DSM 10:14DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	4h 54m	96%	79%
United Details →	CLT 06:45 → ORD 08:01UA 1304	59m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → DSM 10:22UA 466	4h 37m	92%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 15:17 → LGA 17:15AA 1942	1h 14m New York	LGA 18:29 → DSM 20:51AA 4395 · flown by Republic	6h 34m	71%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON