Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1405 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1405 CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 419 CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1405 Delta Flight history →	CLT 06:00	DTW 07:42	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 1639 Delta Flight history →	CLT 09:42	DTW 11:30	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2684 Delta Flight history →	CLT 13:17	DTW 15:00	12%	3%	0.6%	77%
AA 1683 American Flight history →	CLT 12:27	DTW 14:19	15%	4%	0.8%	94%
DL 1675 Delta	CLT 17:02	DTW 18:48	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1134 American Flight history →	CLT 15:42	DTW 17:34	22%	5%	0.8%	85%
AA 419 American Flight history →	CLT 20:46	DTW 22:34	23%	6%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON