Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5262 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 10:52	ECP 11:30	11%	3%	0.9%	97%
AA 5297 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:49	ECP 17:27	19%	6%	1.0%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → ECP 08:12DL 3048	3h 42m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	3h 47m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	4h 53m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	CLT 14:22 → ATL 15:37DL 2157	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	4h 33m	97%	87%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:33 → ECP 11:38AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	6h 53m	98%	83%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:05 → ECP 21:11AA 3628 · flown by Envoy	7h 07m	97%	83%
United Details →	CLT 11:48 → IAH 13:34UA 6236 · flown by Mesa	56m Houston	IAH 14:30 → ECP 16:23UA 4902 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 35m	89%	67%
United Details →	CLT 17:00 → IAH 18:58UA 4020 · flown by Mesa	1h 03m Houston	IAH 20:01 → ECP 21:58UA 4343 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 58m	81%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON